Why syrian fighting

The fighting is not yet fully over, though, with the northwestern Idlib region remaining outside of government control. The skirmishes were a reminder that the conflict, though seemingly in its final stages, could still flare back up and escalate.

The situation in the northeast also remains volatile following the removal of U. The estimated death toll is , people, but it could actually be much higher. The United Nations Refugee Agency estimates that 5.

Even as the conflict winds down, it is unclear when or if they will be able to return. At least women, men and children have been killed in seven such attacks over the month reporting period, they said, adding that the real toll is likely to be considerably higher. Indiscriminate shelling has also continued, including on 12 June when munitions struck multiple locations in Afrin city in northwest Syria, killing and injuring many and destroying parts of al-Shifa hospital.

On the contrary. Despite a welcome drop in the level of violence compared with previous years, the Commission of Inquiry highlighted the dangers that continue to be faced by non-combatants. An estimated 2. In March , Russia and Turkey brokered a ceasefire to halt a push by the government to retake Idlib. There has been a relative calm since then, but it could break down at any moment.

In the country's north-east, Turkish forces and allied Syrian rebels launched an offensive against the SDF in October to create a "safe zone" clear of Kurdish YPG militia along the Syrian side of the border, and have occupied a km 75 miles long stretch since. To halt the assault the SDF struck a deal with the Syrian government that saw the Syrian army return to the Kurdish-administered region for the first time in seven years.

The government has vowed to eventually regain full control of it. It does not look like it will anytime soon, but everyone agrees a political solution is required. Nine rounds of UN-mediated peace talks - known as the Geneva II process - failed to make progress, with President Assad apparently unwilling to negotiate with political opposition groups that insist he must step down as part of any settlement.

Russia, Iran and Turkey set up parallel political talks known as the Astana process in An agreement was reached the following year to form a member committee to write a new constitution, leading to free and fair elections supervised by the UN. But in January , UN special envoy Geir Pedersen lamented that they had not even begun drafting any reforms. Mr Pedersen also noted that, with five foreign armies active in Syria, the international community could not pretend the solutions to the conflict were only in the hands of the Syrians.

Image source, Reuters. How did the Syrian war start? Image source, AFP. How many people have died? Who's involved? This removed the burden of fighting on multiple fronts and allowed Syrian government forces, along with their Russian and Iranian allies, to take over one opposition-held area after the other.

Parts of Idlib province now form the last de-escalation zone remaining in opposition control. It forced Turkey to re-engage, following a crisis in relations caused by the downing of a Russian fighter jet by Turkish forces, in The failed coup attempt against the government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in , accelerated the process. This allowed Russia to enter into the Libyan fray, albeit late, and seek a say in the future of the country by backing the offensive of renegade military commander Khalifa Haftar on the capital Tripoli.

Despite the increased diplomatic engagement in the region and the prestige on the international scene that has come with it, Russia has not really achieved the same level of influence the US has had. Moscow has also failed to leverage its position in the Syrian conflict to jump-start dialogue with the West on sanctions or even get Western Europe to commit to funding the reconstruction of war-ravaged Syria.

At the same time, Russia is not in full control of Damascus. The regime is quite independent and is able to use both Moscow and Tehran to ensure its survival. In addition, the continued Turkish and American military presence in resource-rich northern Syria also guarantees Ankara and Washington a say in the future of Syria. Russia entered the Syrian war amid an economic crisis due to slumping oil prices and the fallout of the Ukrainian crisis. This initially caused domestic concern about the cost of the war.

At the same time, the Russian government has presented the operation in Syria as an opportunity to test and promote Russian weaponry something other large arms exporters, like the US and Israel, have also done in the region. In , the defence ministry said some new weapons had been tested in military action in Syria.